Category Radar by Bedrock
The threats behind the headlines, checked against the register.
Bedrock is partnering with retailers to leverage their own data sets to provide their retail buyers with deeper insights into their shoppers so they can make better decisions to meet quickly changing market dynamics. Every issue starts with a threat the industry is talking about: a narrative, a law, a cost shock, a retailer move. Then we check it against the register, using Bedrock's read of US retail scan data across all channels. Sometimes the threat is bigger than the headlines. Often it's smaller, or it's hiding somewhere nobody is looking.
Issues
35
investigations checked against the register, plus one open to your request
Kinds of threat
8
narrative, policy, cost, retailer, supply, shopper, season and trend
Bigger than it looks
9
issues where the register showed more risk than the headlines
Smaller than it looks
10
issues where the headline outran the register
IDX
The reports
No. 01Narrative
Seed oils
The seed oil scare built a market. The brands that built it aren't keeping it.
−4%seed oil volume while seed-oil-free brands grew
Read the report →
No. 02Policy
SNAP soda restrictions
Cutting soda from SNAP cut soda sales. A court ruling proved it.
−3 ptsregular soda vs. comparison cities after SNAP limits
Read the report →
No. 03Retailer
Store brands
Everyone's talking about a store-brand land grab. The shelf hasn't moved.
Flatstore-brand share, despite ~3x the searches
Read the report →
No. 04Cost
Cocoa and chocolate
Cocoa came down by half. Chocolate prices kept climbing, and shoppers are buying less.
+10%chocolate price per pound, a year after cocoa peaked
Read the report →
No. 05Supply and safety
Recall contagion
A branded recall hurts the brand. An unbranded one hurts the whole aisle.
−12 ptsaisle-wide loss after a store-brand recall
Read the report →
No. 06Cost
Beef at record prices
Beef hit record prices. Shoppers didn't switch proteins. They just bought less beef.
~−5%beef pounds as price per pound rose about 11%
Read the report →
No. 07Supply
Eggs and bird flu
Bird flu sent egg prices to records twice. Shoppers kept buying eggs, and many never went back to the cheap ones.
+4 ptspremium egg share, kept after the spike
Read the report →
No. 08Cost and policy
Tariffs by aisle
Tariffs went up, came down and were struck down. Shelf prices only went one way.
0aisles where tariff relief reached the shelf
Read the report →
No. 09Demand
GLP-1 appetite erosion
GLP-1 isn't emptying the snack aisle. It's tilting it.
~−2%typical indulgent unit change as GLP-1 use doubled
Read the report →
No. 10Policy and narrative
Synthetic dyes
The war on food dyes is real. Shoppers haven't joined it at the register.
+6%gummy candy units despite the dye crackdown
Read the report →
No. 11Policy
Energy drink age limits
No state has banned energy drinks for kids yet. The category is built on exactly what a ban would hit.
~5 monthsof energy drink growth an under-18 limit would cost
Read the report →
No. 12Retailer
Store closures
A national drug chain closed every store. By then, most of its sales were already gone.
Two-thirdsof the closing chain's share gone before its doors shut
Read the report →
No. 13Demand
Gen Z vs Gen Alpha
Gen Alpha's brands burn bright and fade fast. Gen Z's brands keep compounding.
< 1 yrshelf launch to peak for creator-led brands
Read the report →
No. 14Demand
GLP-1 vs retatrutide
Pills are widening GLP-1 use. The next drug cuts deeper. Plan for both.
−3%typical indulgent unit change since the GLP-1 pill
Read the report →
No. 15Demand
Modern soda
The prebiotic soda gold rush is cooling. The real soda shift is to diet.
+80% → +3%modern soda dollar growth as the boom cooled
Read the report →
No. 16Demand
The hydration boom
Hydration became a year-round habit. It's growing next to energy drinks, not instead of them.
~20% a yearelectrolyte powder growth, three years running
Read the report →
No. 17Cost and policy
Steel tariffs and the canned aisle
Steel tariffs reached the can a year late. Shoppers are already walking to the freezer.
+15%cost of a metal can since the steel tariffs
Read the report →
No. 18Demand
Pet food
Dog owners are buying less food. What they still buy is either fresh or cheap.
~−4%dog food pounds, with fresh up about 10%
Read the report →
No. 19Narrative
TikTok and food brands
TikTok can move a food category for a season. Only habits and new products last.
~4 monthshow long a viral recipe lift lasts
Read the report →
No. 20Narrative
Influencers and CPG brands
Influencers can launch a brand. Only fit keeps it.
~Halfof influencer-led brands lost half their peak share
Read the report →
No. 21Cost
Shrinkflation, measured
Shrinkflation is small across the store and sharp where it happens. Shoppers mostly keep buying.
+25%price per ounce at a typical downsize
Read the report →
No. 22Retailer
The return of the deal
The deal is back. It isn't buying volume back.
Flatunits where deals rose most
Read the report →
No. 23Narrative
Ultra-processed food and whole milk
Shoppers haven't quit ultra-processed food. They have gone back to whole milk.
+2%whole milk gallons while lower-fat milk fell
Read the report →
No. 24Retailer
The aisle you can't see
Brands are losing sight of their shoppers. AI agents could make that worse.
~19%of grocery spending now online
Read the report →
No. 25Season
Halloween candy forecast
Halloween will set another spending record. It will hand out less chocolate.
−15%Halloween chocolate units, 2025
Read the report →
No. 26Cost shock
Pricing power after inflation
Shoppers absorbed four years of price. Past about 8%, volume breaks.
~8%the price rise past which volume breaks
Read the report →
No. 27Shopper
K-shaped shopper by income
Higher- and lower-income metros are buying the aisle the same way. The K is in the mood, not the cart.
<1 ptstore-brand gap change, higher- vs. lower-income metros
Read the report →
No. 28Policy
SNAP enrollment and benefit cuts
SNAP lost 5 million people in a year. The grocery aisle hasn't found them yet.
~0 ptsgap between deep-cut and light-cut SNAP cities
Read the report →
No. 29Trend
Fiber, the next protein?
Fiber is the talk of the aisle. Protein is still the one selling.
Flat vs. +40%fiber-claim vs. protein-claim food units
Read the report →
No. 30Cost shock
Coffee at home
Record coffee prices didn't send shoppers home to brew. They bought 5% less coffee.
−5%at-home coffee volume as shelf price rose 17%
Read the report →
No. 31Trend
Plant-based meat collapse
Plant-based meat lost a third of its volume in three years. Shoppers left first. The shelf followed.
A thirdof plant-based meat units gone in three years
Read the report →
No. 32Trend
Frozen aisle comeback
The frozen comeback is in vegetables and snacks. Frozen dinners still haven't come back.
Nearly −20%frozen meal units vs. 2021
Read the report →
No. 33Shopper
Pack sizes under budget pressure
Squeezed shoppers are buying smaller packs, not bigger ones. Bulk only wins where it stores.
13 of 17categories where the smallest packs gained volume share
Read the report →
No. 34Season
Weather as a threat
Heat and hurricanes swing local sales by double digits. Over a season the weather mostly cancels out. Misreading it doesn't.
+8%bottled water units per 10°F hotter summer week
Read the report →
No. 35Shopper
The 65-plus shopper
America adds 1.8 million people 65 and older this year. The aisles built for them are shrinking.
9 of 12older-skew categories trailing the store
Read the report →
No. 36Open
Your category, on request
The next radar is yours. What should we check in your aisle?
Openrequest a private radar on your own category
Request your radar →
NET
How the series is built
Each issue draws on several kinds of evidence, and no finding rests on one source alone. The register sits at the center of every one.
STD
Our standards
The registerTotal Shelf: Bedrock's read of US retail scan data across all channels. We compare each period with the same weeks a year earlier.
No namesWe name categories, never brands, manufacturers or retailers, and we report only percent changes and indexes, never dollar sales.
ChecksBefore calling anything a national trend, we test whether one retailer or one product drives it, compare against an unaffected category, and look for restated history and holiday timing.
The public sideNews volume, search interest, government prices, commodity markets, laws, court rulings and surveys, each cited in its issue.
Category Radar is Bedrock's read on what's putting CPG categories at risk. Bedrock connects 30+ syndicated and retailer data sources so CPG brands can see what's changing in their categories before it shows up in a line review. bedrockanalytics.com · © 2026 Bedrock Analytics
