Category Radar · The series · 2026Monitoring 47 threats

Category Radar by Bedrock

The threats behind the headlines, checked against public data and trends.

Bedrock is actively pursuing partnerships with retailers to give their buyers deeper insight into their shoppers, so they can make better decisions as the market shifts. Every issue starts with a threat the industry is talking about: a narrative, a law, a cost shock, a retailer move. Then we check it against the evidence: USDA and Federal Reserve data, government price indexes, search, news and social trends, read next to how the category is actually selling. Sometimes the threat is bigger than the headlines. Often it's smaller, or it's hiding somewhere nobody is looking.

Issues

investigations checked against the evidence, plus one open to your request

Kinds of threat

narrative, policy, cost, retailer, supply, shopper, season and trend

Bigger than it looks

issues where the register showed more risk than the headlines

Smaller than it looks

issues where the headline outran the register

IDX

The reports

Category Radar by Bedrock

The reports

The seed oil scare built a market. The brands that built it aren't keeping it.

Cutting soda from SNAP cut soda sales. A court ruling proved it.

Everyone's talking about a store-brand land grab. The shelf hasn't moved.

Cocoa came down by half. Chocolate prices kept climbing, and shoppers are buying less.

A branded recall hurts the brand. An unbranded one hurts the whole aisle.

Beef hit record prices. Shoppers didn't switch proteins. They just bought less beef.

Bird flu sent egg prices to records twice. Shoppers kept buying eggs, and many never went back to the cheap ones.

Tariffs went up, came down and were struck down. Shelf prices only went one way.

GLP-1 isn't emptying the snack aisle. It's tilting it.

The war on food dyes is real. Shoppers haven't joined it at the register.

No state has banned energy drinks for kids yet. The category is built on exactly what a ban would hit.

A national drug chain closed every store. By then, most of its sales were already gone.

Gen Alpha's brands burn bright and fade fast. Gen Z's brands keep compounding.

Pills are widening GLP-1 use. The next drug cuts deeper. Plan for both.

The prebiotic soda gold rush is cooling. The real soda shift is to diet.

Hydration became a year-round habit. It's growing next to energy drinks, not instead of them.

Steel tariffs reached the can a year late. Shoppers are already walking to the freezer.

Dog owners are buying less food. What they still buy is either fresh or cheap.

TikTok can move a food category for a season. Only habits and new products last.

Influencers can launch a brand. Only fit keeps it.

Shrinkflation is small across the store and sharp where it happens. Shoppers mostly keep buying.

The deal is back. It isn't buying volume back.

Shoppers haven't quit ultra-processed food. They have gone back to whole milk.

Brands are losing sight of their shoppers. AI agents could make that worse.

Halloween will set another spending record. It will hand out less chocolate.

Shoppers absorbed four years of price. Past about 8%, volume breaks.

Higher- and lower-income metros are buying the aisle the same way. The K is in the mood, not the cart.

SNAP lost 5 million people in a year. The grocery aisle hasn't found them yet.

Fiber is the talk of the aisle. Protein is still the one selling.

Record coffee prices didn't send shoppers home to brew. They bought 5% less coffee.

Plant-based meat lost a third of its volume in three years. Shoppers left first. The shelf followed.

The frozen comeback is in vegetables and snacks. Frozen dinners still haven't come back.

Squeezed shoppers are buying smaller packs, not bigger ones. Bulk only wins where it stores.

Heat and hurricanes swing local sales by double digits. Over a season the weather mostly cancels out. Misreading it doesn't.

America adds 1.8 million people 65 and older this year. The aisles built for them are shrinking.

Wholesale turkey cost 80% more last fall. Shoppers cut the boxed sides instead.

Retailers called another record holiday season. In the grocery cart, the record was price.

The flu sets the size of the cold-care season. The calendar sets its timing.

Restaurant prices outran grocery for three years. The meals never came home.

The January health rush lasts about three weeks. The aisles that keep it are the ones with a spring season.

Most flavor fads crest on the shelf within about three years. The warning sign is more items, each selling less.

Fat is back mostly because margarine is leaving. Tallow is real, but it's growing one new jar at a time.

Sugar is the next ingredient target. Shoppers are swapping it in the glass, not the pantry.

The big game is a national snack holiday. The two team cities add only a little.

Grocery stores keep losing units, a couple of points a year. The stock-up aisles are going to the supercenter, club and dollar store.

Most new items that win real shelf are still there a year later. The ones that fade went wide all at once.

Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in May. The grocery cart barely moved.

The public record behind every issue: 30 named sources, from USDA to TikTok.

The next radar is yours. What should we check in your aisle?

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